Canada looks to become ‘energy superpower’ as plans submitted for 1m bbl/d pipeline

CANADIAN prime minister Mark Carney has pledged to make Canada an “energy superpower” as plans to build a new oil pipeline between Alberta and the British Columbian coast were submitted last week. 

The West Coast Oil Pipeline will transport 1m bbl/d of heavy crude from oilsands fields in Alberta to a deepwater port in Southwest British Columbia. Carney hopes this will open Alberta crude up to Asian markets and diversify Canadian trade, historically dependent on oil exports to the US. 

The plans, submitted by the government of Alberta, are now subject to a decision by the Major Projects Office on whether to list the development as a “project of national interest”, which will be determined by October. Initial plans for the pipeline drafted in November 2025 said it would be financed by the private sector, but the Pembina Institute thinktank suggested 90% of the C$35bn-44bn (US$25bn-31bn) cost may now be split between the governments of Canada and Alberta. Indigenous groups will also have an equity stake, the extent of which is yet to be determined. 

Construction will be completed by the Trans Mountain and Pembina Pipeline corporations, which the governments hope will begin as early as 2027. They expect operations to begin between 2032 and 2034. 

Alberta’s 177bn bbl of proven oil reserves are believed to be the fourth largest in the world. The Alberta government aims to double the province’s oil production to 8m bbl/d over the next 10-15 years. At a press conference at the TramsAm piping facility in Calgary last week, Alberta premier Danielle Smith said she was also finalising a separate agreement with the federal government that will include measures to “expedite growth in oil sands production necessary to fill the new West Coast pipeline”. The existing Trans Mountain pipeline is also set for expansion to carry an additional 400,000 bbl/d. 

Smith added: “We cannot lose another decade or more to delay and inaction”, having been a critic of the previous federal administration’s energy policy under former Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau. “We’ve certainly come a long way from talk of phasing out Alberta’s oil and gas.”

‘Low emission bitumen’

The Alberta government estimated that producing 1m bbl/d of oil will contribute up to 18.2m tCO2e in annual greenhouse gas emissions. Around 80-95% of the oil mix sent along the pipeline will be steam-assisted gravity drainage diluted bitumen (dilbit), with the remainder made up of paraffinic froth treatment dilbit and mined synthetic crude. The government did not publish estimates for refining and end-use emissions associated with the pipeline.

Globally, however, the government estimated the project could contribute to annual emissions reductions of up to 6.5m tCO2e, assuming the Alberta bitumen displaces higher-emission heavy crude currently imported in Canada’s target markets across Asia. Average well-to-refinery emissions intensity of Alberta crude are around 42-46 kgCO2e/bbl – lower than comparable Kuwait Export, Urals Heavy and Venezuelan Merey 16 – although higher than Arab and Basrah heavy crudes. 

Smith said the oil industry-funded Pathways carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) project, which aims to capture 6m t/y by 2035 and up to 16m t/y by 2045 from oil production in Northeast Alberta, will make the province’s bitumen “among the lowest emission heavy oil globally”. The Canadian government expanded CCUS subsidies last year to include oil extraction as an approved use of captured CO2, although it is unclear whether Pathways-captured CO2 will be used in this way. 

Environmental groups have been critical of the overall direction of the Carney government, which last year delayed the target for oil and gas industry methane reduction by five years. Keith Stewart, senior energy strategist at Greenpeace Canada, told The Chemical Engineer the West Coast pipeline plans are “incompatible” with net zero commitments. “Given the accelerating pace at which oil-importing countries are making the transition away from oil and gas, there isn’t a business case for it either, as illustrated by the lack of a private sector proponent”.

‘Global volatility’

Since his election last year, Carney has been a vocal critic of US president Donald Trump and has made efforts to diversify Canadian trade away from the US. Last week he said that “we are all living through a moment of unprecedented global volatility” and that the new pipeline “will unlock Alberta’s energy for the world”. 

He added that G7 leaders had “called on Canada to provide the reliable energy that the world needs, to realise our full potential as an energy superpower”. 

Meanwhile, Smith and Ontario premier Doug Ford floated plans for another pipeline this week that could carry up to 800,000 bbl/d from Alberta to Sarnia, a Great Lakes port city on the US border. 

The new pipeline announcements have domestic implications too, as Albertans brace for an independence referendum in October. Carney said the West Coast Pipeline plans represent “cooperative federalism at work”.