Heathrow expansion ‘not compatible’ with UK climate targets, government warned

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PLANS to expand London Heathrow Airport are “not compatible” with climate targets, an official panel has warned the government, unless the aviation industry pays for greater uptake of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and greenhouse gas removal (GGR) technology. 

Heathrow won government backing for a third runway last year, but the Climate Change Committee (CCC), which advises the UK government on greenhouse gas emissions and sets the country’s legally binding carbon budgets, said there was currently “insufficient policy to decarbonise the UK aviation sector”, even without the planned expansion. The report comes after government-commissioned analysis found that expansion would have “significant adverse environmental effects”, even taking into account the possible growth of SAF and GGR technology.

Aviation is one of the most difficult sectors to decarbonise, and Heathrow, one of the world’s busiest airports, already contributes to around half of the UK’s aviation emissions. While most sectors will be “well advanced in their decarbonisation journey”, the CCC expects annual UK aviation emissions to climb from its current 37m tCO2e to 39m tCO2e by 2050 under existing policy – above the carbon budget limit of 37.5m tCO2e. A fully expanded Heathrow would generate an additional 4.5m tCO2e each year by 2054 on top of the 11.3m tCO2e predicted from construction of the new runway. 

The CCC said 56% of the required emissions reductions from aviation could be met by industry-funded SAF and GGR technology. The remainder would need to come from demand reduction and efficiency improvements. At Heathrow alone, demand is expected to increase from 299m annual passengers currently to 474m by 2050. A third runway would increase this further to 491m. 

The report acknowledged that the costs of SAF and GGR would likely make flight tickets more expensive. Tim Alderslade, CEO of Airlines UK, accused the CCC’s approach of “putting holidays out of reach for millions and turning the clock back to a time when flying was the preserve of the rich.” The CCC noted that currently around half of England’s population takes fewer than one flight a year. 

Alderslade added: “Both SAF and GGRs are proven technically viable, as the CCC itself admits. We should focus on delivering them, not pricing ordinary people out of the joys of travel.”

However, a paper published last week by researchers at the University of Manchester-based Tyndall Centre and commissioned by Friends of the Earth warned there was no evidence the SAF and GGR industries were on track to reach the scales required to reach net zero by 2050. Research fellow Lois Pennington said: “Sustainable aviation fuels and carbon removals can contribute to limiting aviation emissions, but there is currently no evidence that these technologies can support the scale of aviation expansion envisaged by the government. Further aviation expansion carries a significant risk of exacerbating climate impacts by relying on the growth of technologies that are unlikely to materialise in the timescale needed.” 

The CCC report also reflected the uncertainty in SAF and GGR and urged the government to develop “contingency policies” to account for delays in the technologies’ uptake. Only 1% of the required emissions reductions from GGR “are supported by credible plans”, the committee noted, while existing policy mandating 10% of all jet fuel to be SAF by 2030 is “insufficient”. Analysis by the European Federation for Transport & Environment last year found that European aviation emissions will continue increasing well into the 2040s even if the level of SAF uptake predicted by airlines is realised. 

CCC chair Nigel Topping said: “Our advice is clear. Heathrow expansion is not currently compatible with the UK’s net zero target. Government needs to ensure that the aviation industry takes responsibility for the emissions it creates and bears the costs of decarbonisation. Those conditions do not exist today. 

“This summer’s extreme weather has brought the impacts of climate change into sharp focus. Every tonne of greenhouse gas emissions makes those impacts worse. That’s why it’s so important the right policies are put in place now to fully address aviation emissions.”