Aviation emissions predicted to rise until 2040s, despite increasing sustainable fuel alternatives

Article by Sam Baker

EMISSIONS from the aviation industry are projected to continue rising despite increased uptake of sustainable fuel alternatives, a new report has found.

The Brussels-based European Federation for Transport and Environment (T&E) reported this month that, based on current projections, the aviation industry will emit 79 m t/y of CO2 by 2050 – just a 3% reduction on 2019 levels.

The prediction is based on Boeing and Airbus market outlooks that predict air passenger traffic will more than double by 2050, along with projected uptake of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). If the report’s predictions are realised, the industry will deplete its EU carbon budget, meant to last until 2050, in 2026. 

Camille Mutrelle, aviation policy officer at T&E, said the projected rise in emissions is a result of the industry’s “addiction to growth”.  

The European Commission aims for emissions in 2050 to be 90% lower than 1990 levels, but T&E forecasts aviation emissions in Europe will increase by 46% by 2040. The EU’s targets would require air traffic to be 60% lower than the T&E prediction.

T&E called on the EU to enact stricter rules to prevent airport expansion, further incentivise SAF uptake, and promote rail travel across the continent. Apostolos Tzitzikostas, EU commissioner for sustainable transport and tourism, said: “Environmental sustainability in aviation stands as the defining challenge of the 21st century and is key to enabling the sector’s growth while ensuring vital connectivity for our citizens.

“By monitoring progress and pinpointing areas for improvement, the European Aviation Environmental Report provides the facts and figures to inform decision-making to keep European aviation aligned with EU and international environmental targets.”

SAF at Heathrow

SAF is derived from biomass with low carbon stock and is defined by a widely attributed 2019 paper by the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) as having net emissions at least 10% lower than typical kerosene fuel. Some SAFs can make emissions savings of up to 94%.

T&E’s report comes after London Heathrow Airport announced last week that it will be investing £86m (US$105m) in making SAF cheaper for airlines, setting the target of SAF making up 3% of all fuel used by planes taking off from the airport. Heathrow says its investment will approximately halve the price difference between SAF and kerosene.  

Heathrow’s target is 1% higher than the proportion mandated by UK legislation brought in this year. The airport plans to gradually increase the target to 11% by 2030, which it says is a “crucial step in the airport’s journey toward achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050”.

Mutrelle told TCE that Heathrow’s SAF scheme is an “innovative initiative”, and that “more airports need to follow these steps to help support the ramp-up of green fuels”.

However, she described the scheme as “meaningless” if the rapid growth in the aviation industry materialises as predicted. She added: “The aviation industry must start addressing its addiction to growth in order for SAFs to be a realistic tool to reduce emissions.”

According to Heathrow’s latest sustainability report from 2023, SAF usage accounted for emissions savings of 279,163 t of CO2, and the airport aims to increase this to 500,00 t of CO2 in 2025. However, both figures are dwarfed by the 3,733,589 t of CO2 emitted in 2023 from aviation to transport the SAF to the planes that used it. The airport’s total carbon footprint for that year was 22,408,375 t.

The International Aviation Trade Association has been approached for comment.

Article by Sam Baker

Staff reporter, The Chemical Engineer

Recent Editions

Catch up on the latest news, views and jobs from The Chemical Engineer. Below are the four latest issues. View a wider selection of the archive from within the Magazine section of this site.