Climate Change Committee sets ‘ambitious’ UK carbon target for 2040

ELECTRIC vehicles (EVs), carbon capture, and hydrogen take centre stage in the Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) seventh carbon budget, which aims to reduce UK emissions by 87% (compared to 1990 levels) by 2040.

In the seventh carbon budget, which covers a five-year period between 2038 and 2042, the CCC has set out a “Balanced Pathway” which focuses on domestic carbon reduction techniques rather than relying on international credits.

The CCC states in the budget: “This would be an ambitious target, reflecting the importance of the task. But it is deliverable, provided action is taken rapidly.

“Our advice is based on the latest technological, social, and economic evidence; extensive sector modelling; engagement with stakeholders including businesses, trade unions, and farmers; and a citizens’ panel testing what would make changes accessible and affordable to households.”

Sector reductions

The pathway sets out a piecemeal of specific reduction targets from some of the UKs biggest emitters.

More than a quarter of emission reductions are expected to come from the transport industry and with the expected growth in EV sales, which the CCC project will make up for more than three-quarters of the fleet on the road by 2040.

The CCC also expects 14% reductions from residential heating and the rapid increase in heat pump installations. The organisation says the UK must increase installations from 60,000 in 2023 to 450,000 in 2030, and a further 1.5m by 2035.

Similarly with carbon capture and storage (CCS), the committee recommends CCS be used in all industrial subsectors with limited reduction alternatives, namely in chemicals, cement, and lime.

The CCC has laid out 43 recommendations for the government to limit greenhouse gas emissions to 535m t of CO2 equivalent in the budget period.

Industry welcome

The pathway was warmly received by both organisations and industry, who were in agreement that the UK should not rely on volatile international gas prices to keep energy affordable.

Dhara Vyas, CEO of Energy UK, said: “The recommendations in the seventh carbon budget also reaffirm that electrification is the key to achieving net zero. Attracting investment into clean energy technologies is essential to decarbonising the UK’s economy, powering our cars, heating our homes, and growing our industry.”

Doug Parr, the UK’s policy director at Greenpeace, said: “Delivering bold action to cut emissions and tackle the climate crisis could drag this country out of the doldrums and put money back into people’s pockets.

“This report demonstrates that a future with cheap energy, lower bills, economic stability, energy security, and a safe and habitable planet is not some pie-in-the-sky utopia that will cost us the earth, but an affordable future that is well within our grasp.”

The UK government will now present the budget, along with supplementary proposals and policies, to parliament for approval by 30 June 2026.